Talent developmentFull text read · 23 Oct 2026
Short answer. Yes, often. Most adult international athletes were not international at under-18. Not being the star at fifteen tells you very little about twenty-five.
Güllich and colleagues pulled together every study they could find that tracked athletes from junior to adult level: over 60,000 athletes across the Olympic sports. They asked two questions.
Of the teenagers who competed internationally at under-17/18, how many did so as adults? About 11 in 100.
Of the adults who competed internationally, how many had done so at under-17/18? About 18 in 100. The other 82 arrived from somewhere below the top of the youth game.
A second review by the same group, 9,241 athletes, found that the adults who reached world class had made slower early progress than the national-class athletes they later overtook. They started their main sport later, did less of it as children, and did more other sports.
Stop asking whether they're the best in the team. Ask whether they're better than three months ago. Don't quit on the off-year.
Your current best are mostly not your future best. Coach the whole squad. Send this page to the one who's thinking about leaving.
The 11 and 82 are for under-17s. For the oldest junior band, under-18s and 19s, the numbers soften: about 25 in 100 make it, and 68 in 100 adult internationals came from outside the junior elite. Still most.
Team sports are different. Among adult internationals in team sports, about half had been junior internationals at that oldest band. In individual sports, under a third. If your kid plays rugby or football, "coin flip" is more honest than "four in five".
The studies lean towards male athletes, individual Olympic sports, and Western Europe. They describe what happened to those who stayed in; they can't say what would have happened to those who left.
Scott Bain · PE teacher, leads a school athlete development programme, reads the papers in full. About